Navarik Market Update
April 27, 2017
Despite two weeks of inventory builds in PADD 5, inflows of gasoline and gasoline components will continue in the coming weeks, particularly into California. Navarik’s proprietary data shows this includes relatively large RBOB shipments via the Panama Canal, set to arrive by the end of April, and alkylate cargoes from Asia Pacific scheduled for both San Francisco and LA through to early May.
The Dakota Access Pipeline is expected to come online in May, and could push US crude barrels out of PADD 3 rather within the US by rail, furthering the run on domestic crude inventories nationwide. These supply side factors could increase retail prices faster than expected, possibly hitting leisure driving habits in a time when consumption data is already low year-over-year. With PADD 5 gasoline stocks rebuilding above the historical trend, and Jones Act Movements out of the region rare, the regional market could return to a slight oversupply from undersupply before the rally gets to fully reach its stride.
Colin McCann is an Oil & Gas analyst with Navarik Corporation. The Navarik Data Products team analyzes Navarik's proprietary data sets and external sources to provide insights into the oil & gas shipping market. The resulting analysis enables physical and paper traders to see ship movements across the barrel before anyone else in the market.
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