Navarik Market Update
May 11, 2017
With US refinery throughput on the rise and crude stocks falling as the market bets on summer driving increasing gasoline demand, it is natural that diesel output should also rise. However, with US diesel demand typically low in the summer, these barrels are often shipped offshore (particularly to South America), as has happened in record numbers in previous weeks, including from uncommon export regions like PADD 1.
How long can this continue? Crude draws have recently been less than expected, hinting at low consumer demand, but likewise gasoline stocks have declined, suggesting that demand has stayed high enough to send net production to the pumps rather than to storage. Diesel exports, therefore, could act as the “canary in the coal mine” for traders watching clean product output in the US – and although early May EIA data shows a drop from April's highs, Navarik’s forward-looking data set projects that May’s average weekly PADD 3 exports will be more or less stable. Navarik data is ideally placed to monitor this trend going forward and help identify if and/or when the scales truly tip and US petroleum supply more closely matches on-road demand.
Colin McCann is an Oil & Gas analyst with Navarik Corporation. The Navarik Data Products team analyzes Navarik's proprietary data sets and external sources to provide insights into the oil & gas shipping market. The resulting analysis enables physical and paper traders to see ship movements across the barrel before anyone else in the market.
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