Navarik Market Update
May 04, 2017
Coming off the scramble of the early Q1 Mexican “Gasolinazo” trade, Q2 appears set for a drastic shift. Exporters rushed to send barrels to Mexico, as the country raised maximum retail gasoline prices in a bid to rationalize domestic supply and demand to better reflect local refining capacity. However, it seems that trade has reversed; in part due to rising gasoline demand in the US, as well as reported increases in Mexican refinery utilization and a decline in Mexican crude exports keeping feedstocks in-country. Navarik’s projected May PADD 3 gasoline exports are down approximately 1 million barrels from April’s volumes, which themselves were down from the recent highs.
Navarik’s proprietary data set, based on nominations and inspections of clean product cargoes, was able to give traders forward-guidance of the emergence of the “Gasolinazo” trade. Navarik Trade Flow picked up the surge in exports in December, while the cargoes were still on the water, and also captured the marked decline in exports as Mexican inventories rationalized. Navarik is ready and able to advise on whether this market again shifts as drastically as expected – and for how long. To receive access to our more detailed data products and stay ahead of the market, contact our Analyst Team.
Figure 1: Gasoline Stocks (Mbbl) - PADD 3
Figure 2: PADD 3 Monthly Gasoline Exports to Mexico
Colin McCann is an Oil & Gas analyst with Navarik Corporation. The Navarik Data Products team analyzes Navarik's proprietary data sets and external sources to provide insights into the oil & gas shipping market. The resulting analysis enables physical and paper traders to see ship movements across the barrel before anyone else in the market.
A list of current available trade flow reports can be found here.