Despite the fact that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season may yet have weeks to run and potentially develop another devastating storm on the same level as a Harvey, Irma, or Maria we have passed the typical peak period; most years the count and severity of most Atlantic storms begins to continually weaken from about the end of September towards the end of November. After 2017, this should come as good news, but what is more nuanced in terms of recurring effects of this year’s storms is whether or not marine exports out of PADD 3 have recovered. Navarik Data confirms that refined product exports volumes are lower but are tracking almost exactly the pattern set last year.
2016 provides an interesting counterfactual owing to the fact that although the number of storms and their intensity was approximately equivalent, the storms in 2016 all tracked parallel to the US Eastern Seaboard, whereas in 2017 the storms seemingly targeted the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this, the overall pattern of export volumes shows a decline at the start of Q4 for both 2016 and 2017. The sudden drop off in week 35 clearly represents shut-downs due to Harvey, but by week 27 this has abated and the time series follows the trend from 2016. Navarik’s forward-looking data set of confirmed nominations also projects that (after adjusting for the timelines in scheduling nominations) this will continue at least into week 42, representing the EIA reporting week ending October 20. To a certain extent this suggests that for all intents and purposes the technical and resourcing capabilities of PADD 3 marine export facilities to load and ship barrels has definitively normalized, this also suggests that for the remainder of the calendar year the volume of exports could remain lower. This should add to speculation that global gluts in petroleum products may have gone some way to easing, complementing the same speculation currently shaking up the crude oil market.
Navarik Data cautions that these projections are just that - projections. Should these projections end up being premature, Navarik Data’s suite of reports are uniquely suited to provide updated guidance while these market-making cargoes are still on the water
Figure 1: PADD 3 Refined Product Exports
Image 2: 2016 Hurricane Trajectories
Image 3: 2017 Hurricane Trajectories
Navarik’s team of analysts provide highlights gathered from the Navarik suite of reports. This highly validated set of data provides unique insight into the marine petroleum shipping market.
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