After briefly trending downwards, US refinery utilization rates have recovered to be near their historical levels at around 95% of nameplate capacity. In spite of that, clean product stocks have generally declined, in part due to presumed high customer demand but also high exports.
However, Navarik Data expects this trend to stall this week. Navarik’s proprietary data set shows that predicted PADD 3 refined product exports for the start of August are some 65% of the volumes registered at the start of July, and have been trending downwards in the intervening weeks. Moreover, this change is not apparently attributable to any shifts in the underlying destinations.
Since the coast of the Gulf of Mexico is the predominant petroleum export hub for the United States and domestic production has continued to increase, Navarik predicts a modest build in refined products in tomorrow’s EIA release, particularly if refinery utilization rates continue to stay elevated.
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